Many Ghanaians have been facetious about the possible impact of the Middle East conflict on our economy, all over the place because of NDC propaganda while in Opposition in the last few years, to downplay the impact of external factors on our economy because it suited their push for power.

However, on a more substantive note, thanks mainly to the good economic recovery work of the last NPP Government, as well as the recent Gold Windfall prices, we are in much better shape to withstand external shocks today than we were before COVID, followed by the Russia-Ukraine War. 

And, unlike Iran, there was a NATO embargo placed on Russia throughout 2022 when it attacked Ukraine. And, Russia produces about 11m bpd oil, compared to Iran's $3m bpd.

Also, on average, Gold was approximately $1,400 per ounce in 2019. It is about $5,400 per ounce now!

Our Import Cover was about $8.4b, for 4 months as at 2019. Now, it is about $14.5b for 6 months of cover, with about $9b of it inherited from the last NPP Government and $2.6b of it emanating from the questionable sale of the accumulated Gold Reserves by this Government, as it inherited from the last NPP Government, by the way.

Also, our current Gold Reserves of about 18MT, after their suspicious 19MT sale, is still twice the 9MT we had as at 2019.

Per the IMF,  in terms of Debt to GDP, we are in much better shape now, with a GDP of about $112b, compared to $68b in 2019, and Total Debts of about $63b in 2019 versus $59b now, thanks mainly to the NPP-led DDEP that erased about $13b of our debts over the last two years or so.

Only Real GDP was higher (6.5%) in 2019, prior to COVID, compared to 4% in 2025, per the IMF. 

And, average inflation is pegged by the IMF at 10% now, compared to 7% in 2019.

The Exchange Rate relative to the Dollar has appreciated about 30%, compared to a depreciation of about 18% in 2019.

In fact, according to freecurrencyrates.com, the Dollar depreciated from 4.80ghc to 5.70ghc in 2019, while our AI Dollaromics and favourable external factors, has our Dollar appreciating from 14.70ghc to 10.70ghc, from 2025 to-date.

So, this shock does not in any way, shape or form, compare to the impact of COVID which engulfed the health, economics, production and supply chains of the whole world and lasted over a year, followed right afterwards by the Russia-Ukraine War, which involved an oil embargo over 11m oil per day as well as negatively affecting key food supplies from Ukraine, over a much longer period of time.

Therefore, Government should be able to withstand this relatively lesser shock more easily. In fact, there is almost no economic crisis affecting Ghana, really, for now. 

Indeed, it is likely that we are currently a net beneficiary of geopolitics, from a Gold Windfall price standpoint.

So, Government should rather show working by coming up with ways to cushion our bleeding farmers, and be able to get Real GDP growth beyond the anaemic 4 to 5% range its policies has achieved, to accelerate the economic recovery it inherited from the NPP, when Real GDP grew at a robust 5.7%, in 2024.

Prince Ofosu Sefah

March 3, 2026.

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