With the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primary fast approaching, age-disaggregated delegate-level polling data from *Global Info Analytics when compared to the party’s overall delegate age structure paints a compelling picture:* Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the statistical frontrunner. His support is not only broad across age groups; it is strategically concentrated in the most delegate-heavy brackets, giving him a decisive edge over his rivals.  

*Delegate Composition and Strategic Alignment*

Delegates aged 45–64 account for 71% of the total delegates voting pool. This demographic reality is critical, as it aligns perfectly with Bawumia’s strongest support zones. According to the data:

•    45–54 age group: DMB leads with 46%

•    55–64 age group: DMB holds 34%, despite high undecided rates

Even in the youngest (18–24) and oldest (65+) brackets where his rivals perform relatively better Bawumia maintains a plurality. Across all six age groups, he leads decisively.

*The Power of the Undecided*

Undecided and undisclosed delegates represent a significant swing bloc, particularly in older age groups:

•    55–64: 33% 

•    45–54: 29%

•    65+: 28%

•    25–34: 35%

These figures suggest that a substantial portion of the electorate remains fluid. However, Bawumia’s existing lead in these age groups positions him as the most likely beneficiary of late-breaking decisions. His dominance in the 45–64 range means that even modest gains among undecided delegates could push him past the majority threshold.

*DMB Strategic Advantage*

Dr. Bawumia’s path to victory is built on structural alignment with the delegate base—not on narrow appeal or isolated demographic strength. His advantages include:

•    Demographic Leverage: His strongest support lies in the most delegate-rich age groups.

•    Broad-Based Appeal: He leads in every age bracket, including the youngest (18–24) and oldest (65+).

•    Undecided Conversion Potential: With high-undecided rates in his strongest zones, Bawumia is well positioned to consolidate further support.

*•    Rival Limitations:*

o    Kennedy Agyapong’s best performance (33%) is among 18–24s, who make up just 1% of delegates.

o    Bryan Acheampong’s support peaks at 11% in 65+, but remains below 8% in all other age groups.

      *Conclusion*

Based on delegate composition and polling data, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the statistical favorite to win the January 2026 NPP primary. His consistent lead across all age groups especially the dominant 45–64 bracket makes him the most likely candidate to secure a majority. Unless rivals dramatically reshape their appeal among older delegates or capture an overwhelming share of undecided voters, the numbers point to a clear and data-driven path to victory for DMB.

*Abraham (Asempa)*

*Ahanta West Constituency*

*Western 4 DMB*

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