I have had ten months to soberly reflect on our loss in the December 2024 elections and based on my analysis of available data, historical voting patterns in Ghana and voter behavior patterns, two major factors apart from the candidates competence and marketability, have convinced me that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the only aspirant who will win the NPP power in 2028.

My declaration of support is largely based on the academic rather than emotive analysis of the data my research came up with. 

The first incontrovertible data that came at me is the fact that in the 4th Republican dispensation, no Preaidential aspirant has wrestled power from an incumbent government or President on the first try. In fact, President Kufour had the fewest tries of two in 1996 and 2000. The next President, Prof Evans Atta Mills contested President Kufour in 2000, 2004 before wining on the third try in 2008.

Nana Addo first contested in 2008, then 2012 before wining in 2016. Our current President Mahama came to power by default in 2012 and based on two factors i.e. sympathy votes due to the death of Prof Mills, which the NDC smartly capitalized on and then secondly based on the 8year cycle given to each government in the 4th Republic,  President Mahama was given the mandate to complete Prof Mills and the NDC's terms. 

President Mahama's first contest on his own steam resulted in a resounding defeat in 2016, a defeat that convinced all of us he has been retired from politics for good. He made a come back in 2020, lost and on his third try in 2024 he made the biggest political comeback in Ghana's history. The Ghanaian electorate will always take you through storms, fires and brimstone to test you preparedness for the job. If you do not have the temperament, you will automatically fall out. 

The second striking voter pattern I have noticed is that since 1992, the incumbent President always ends up handing over power to his main political opponent or rival in the last election. Rawlings for all his dislike for Kufour, had to hand over power to Kufour in 2001. Kufour on the other hand,  handed over to Atta Mills in 2009, Mills died " insterstate" and Mahama took over by default. Mahama handed over to Nana Addo in 2017 and Nana Addo handed back to Mahama in 2025.  Please note that Dr. Bawumia was Mahama's main opponent in the last election. Fortunately, in 2028, President Mahama cannot contest. 

Two things are going in favor of Dr. Bawumia and the NPP in 2028. First the NDC is going to filled a new candidate and no new candidate has won elections first time in this dispensation. Secondly the outgoing President always hands over to his opponent in the last elections and this is Dr. Bawumia. 

Suffice it to say, Dr. Bawumia has been on every ticket of the NPP since 2008 for five conservative elections, four times as a running mate and once as the main candidate. He is the most marketed candidate the NPP has and it won't cost an arm and a leg to sell him.

The most important characteristic Dr. Bawumia brings however,  is his experience.  Eight years in opposition and  eight years in government are enough to have made his bones in the political arena to make him a good President who will have the opportunity to correct the mistakes our government made  he has taken the burden of apologizing for. 

It is my considered opinion that Hon Kennedy Agyepong is going to be the NPP's balance and a major factor in ensuring the NPP comes back to power. The perceived factions within the party will largely come to the table and work for power if  Ken feels fairly treated and loses fair and square. I will therefore entreat all Bawumia supporters to be circumspect in their commentary towards Ken and his support base. NPP coming back in 2028 will largely depend on Ken balancing the scales. 

Dr. Bryan Acheampong, young, vibrant, experienced is one for the future. The NPP has a bright future with the likes of him and I am sure he will wait his turn. However, it is Bawumia's time and I declare my unflinching support for him to be our Presidential candidate and to bring us to power in 2028. 

Richard Nyamah ( Kpandai)

Powered by Froala Editor