I have recently read a flurry of analytical write-ups which clearly misuse data to make the case that Dr. Bawumia should not be nominated again, as the NPP’s 2028 Flagbearer, because of his 2024 performance. Before delving into my own analyses, please, permit me to briefly touch on a few of the misuse of data.

Fallacious Data Analytics

Kwasi Kwarteng, Esq., demonstrated that while he may be good at attack communications, he certainly is not so adept when it comes to analytics. Otherwise, why will he even refer to the 1992 "Stolen Verdict" as an example of poor performance over which Prof. Adu Boahen was replaced by JAK, who went on to improve upon Prof.’s 30% garnered in 1992 by about 9% in 1992, for which improved performance JAK was earned re-nomination? Anyone old and/or knowledgeable enough about the 1992 Elections, knows that it was neither free or fair. And, the evidence shows that JAK won the nomination of 1996 and 1998 based mainly on the strength of his legendary retail politicking and experience in governance and politics.

As for one Kobby Amoah, who wrote that in "2020, the NPP handed over its strongest-ever electoral base with 6.7 million votes, the highest in our history. In just one cycle, under Dr. Bawumia, that number crashed to 4.6 million. That is a loss of 2.1 million votes, the steepest fall in the Fourth Republic, despite there being 1.7 million more registered voters", he himself needs to be educated, and not vice versa. A simple check with the EC would have informed Kobby that DMB garnered 4,877,611, as his fellow brother in attacking DMB, Razak Kwadwo Poku correctly referenced.

Anyhow, Kobby wrote as if previous election votes garnered are handed off to the next Flagbearer. JM could not hold even his own 2012 votes garnered, in 2016, by a whopping 803,576 votes. The Rawlings to Atta Mills hand-off in 2000 resulted in about 1,349,634 drop-off. Even the JAK to NADAA hand-off, in relative good economic times, saw a 43,628 drop-off. So, how did Kobby come up with the argument that a new Flagbearer should always be expected to increase the votes garnered by his predecessor, when that has never happened in every 8th-year Election in the 4th Republic?

With regard to Razak Kwadwo Poku, he recently wrote that "John Agyekum Kufuor lost the 1996 presidential election with votes difference of 1, 264, 880, which is far less than Dr. Bawumia's loss of 1, 714, 179", his assertion is very misleading because in 1996, registered voters were 6,947,762, with turnout at 78.31%, while the 2024 Register had 18,744,195 voters, with turnout of 63.97%. It is primarily due to such voter population and turnout changes why most data analysts prefer to compare in percentages, something Razak shockingly dismissed in that write-up.

Simple math, analysed and interpreted correctly will show that the 1996 loss by JAK of 1,264, 880*(11990662/5440792), adjusted for turnout and voter population changes, is 2,787,599 extrapolated into 2024 terms, and cannot be deemed as "far less" (as asserted by Razak) than the 1,714,179-vote loss by DMB to JM in 2024. Of course, though, it is silly to do any pedestrian comparison of 1996 and 2024 elections because the two environments were too different.

So, I implore all NPP supporters to be extra critical, as we go through our Primaries so as not to be deceived by clever use of analytics. Yes, it can be fairly argued that the Party was not as well-established in 1996 as it was as at 2024, and JM was not an incumbent seeking a 2nd Term, like Rawlings was in 1996, etcetera. In spite of all these truths, however, it was still very misleading for Razak to have made that assertion.

Sound Comparative Data Analytics

The 4th Republic is still relatively young, so, almost every Election is somehow, if not very unique. However, some of the elections are more similar. And, in my fairest estimation, analytically, the closest election to 2024, was 2016 because of the 8-year incumbency and the prevailing harsh economic conditions. Even so, there were a few significant differences, which I necessarily will illuminate later.

In that 2016 election, the then President Mahama garnered 4,771,188 absolute votes, and lost to NADAA by 1,044,570. That 2016 outcome, extrapolated over 15,639,690 registered voters and 69.69% turnout that year, over its equivalent of 18,744,195 and 63.97% in 2024, results in an adjusted gap of 1,044,570* (11,990,662/10,899,300), equal to 1,149,164 in 2024 terms. Simply put, JM went from a 2016 1,149,165-vote loss, as extrapolated in 2024 terms, and won with a gap of 1,714,179 in 2024.

All these analyses show how dynamic our elections are, whereby one candidate can win or lose by such unprecedented gaps (at least, in absolute, if not percentage terms), in different environments and against the same or a different opponent. Meaning the environment in which elections are held, is most key for any comparative analytics.

To accentuate the dynamic nature of our elections, JM beat NADAA, with total votes garnered of 5,574,761 in 2012, with a gap of 325,863. After 8 years of NDC governance, JM, even as a sitting President seeking a 2nd Term due to President Mills' death after 3.5 years in Office, and having won his first full term and NDC’s 2nd Term in 2012, dropped to 4,771,188 in 2016 against the same NADAA he previously beat in 2012 by 325,863. By 2020, even though he again lost, this time, by about 500,000 votes to NADAA who was then seeking his/NPP's 2nd Term, JM garnered 6,213,182 votes. In 2024, when he won again, this time, against DMB, his votes increased to 6,591,790. So, in a nutshell, JM whose votes reduced by 803,573 to 4,771,188 votes from 2012 to 2016, saw an increase in his votes to 6,213,182 and 6,591,790, in 2020 and 2024, respectively, equal to an increase of 1,441,994 by 2020 and 1,820,602 by 2024, compared to his votes in 2016.

So, on what basis could it be simply argued that DMB/NPP’s votes garnered in 2024 of 4,877,611 cannot increase significantly by 2028? On what basis also could it be argued that the NDC may not see a significant drop in their votes garnered by 2028, especially, with an expected first-time Flagbearer and after 4 years in power, based on historical trends and sincere analytics? Finally, on what basis may the NPP not be able to win in 2028, ceteris paribus? Sincerely, there are no basis for these assertions.

Key Differences between the 2024 (1,714,179) NPP Loss, relative to the model 2016 (1,149,164, as extrapolated into 2024) NDC Loss

2016 vs. 2024

*Incumbent President seeking his 2nd Full Term after 8 years of NDC Governance vs. Incumbent VP seeking his first Term after 8 years of NPP Governance

*4-Time Flagbearer vs. 1st Time Flagbearer

*Dumsor-fueled Economic Crisis vs. Economic Crises caused by 2 severe global Health Pandemic/Pseudo World War III in Ukraine/Fuel/Inflation/Supply Chain -fueled crises, which when put together, has no rival in terms of severity since the end of the Flu Pandemic in 1922 and the Great Depression in 1939 and has since been fingured to have caused the defeat of about 80% of incumbent Governments around the world, most of them in spectacular fashion.

*No Primaries vs. the harshest contest ever seen by either the NPP or NDC whereby a major Aspirant ran hard against his own Party’s incumbent Government, calling full of thieves and attempting to bribe him with $800m to opt out of the Flagbearership, etcetera and provided so much material used by the Party’s opponent in the crucial final stages of the General Election Campaign.

All these significant differences between 2016 and 2024, show that DMB’s loss in 2024 is statiscally mitigated by the key prevailing political and economic environmental factors. Furthermore, in 2016, the incumbent NDC won (106/275, which is about 39%) of the Parliamentary Seats, when its Flagbearer garnered about 45% of the votes. In 2024, the incumbent NPP’s equivalents were (88/276, which is 32%) of the Parliamentary Seats and about 42% for the Flagbearer. These analytics hereby show that DMB in 2024 at least, held his own, if the MPs’ performances are considered indicative of the popularity of the Party as a whole, which is a fair assumption.

Who the Voters Want

All credible survey reports such as undertaken by the independent and respected Konrad Adenauer Foundation, show that DMB remains the Aspirant most voters want the NPP to present, again. The insinuation that voters prefer that the NPP presents someone else is not backed by any credible public or private survey I have been privy to. In fact, these assertions can only be figments of the imagination of those who simply want their preferred Aspirant to win over DMB by any means necessary without sincerely looking out for what is best for the NPP.

The Main Alternative to DMB is Worse

In the unlikely event that say DMB does not contest, and his main rival Aspirant were to be the Flagbearer, the Party will almost certainly spend too much of its 2028 campaign responding to incessant NDC attacks because of the many pernicious material he has accumulated against his own party brand, as full of thieves and one which tried to bribe him, etcetera, recorded disrespect for poor people, villagers, women, etc. In Parliament for 5 terms too, this Aspirant may be attacked effectively to not have much, if any policy initiatives which have measurably improved the lives of Ghanaians, including even those in his own Constituency. This Candidate will also have to be sold as a first-time Flagbearer, and the very first Flagbearer offered by either of the major Political Parties without any Cabinet Experience.

Why Dr. Bawumia remains a Viable Candidate for 2028, per snippets from Deep Seek

“The argument against Dr. Bawumia’s candidacy in 2028 hinges on selective interpretations of electoral data while ignoring broader political realities.”

“Historically, Ghana’s ruling party loses significant support in its second term (e.g., NDC dropped from 50.7% in 2008 to 44.5% in 2016). The 2024 loss was not an anomaly but part of a cyclical trend.”

“Unprecedented Economic Challenges: The global economic crisis (post-COVID, Russia-Ukraine war) severely impacted Ghana, leading to hardships that no candidate could have entirely mitigated. Blaming Bawumia alone ignores these external shocks”.

“No Viable Alternative Yet
- The NPP lacks a candidate with Bawumia’s national appeal, experience, and technocratic credibility. His cross-ethnic and cross-regional support remains unmatched in the party.
- Unlike past candidates, Bawumia has a clear record as Vice President, including flagship initiatives like the digitalization drive, which could be a winning message in 2028 with proper framing.”

“Electoral Rebound Potential
- History shows that opposition candidates often recover lost votes after their first attempt (e.g., Akufo-Addo in 2008 vs. 2016). With refined strategies and a focus on economic recovery, Bawumia could regain lost ground.”

“Conclusion
While the 2024 results were disappointing, they reflect broader political and economic forces - not just Bawumia’s candidacy. With strategic adjustments, he remains the NPP’s best bet for 2028. The Party must unite behind him, learn from past mistakes, and focus on winning back disillusioned voters.”

My Conclusion

Dr. Bawumia's brand showed good resilience in a period when the NPP’s brand was damaged by the crises of 2020 to 2024, as evidenced in the 10-point gap between his performance and that of our Parliamentary Candidates. He is the first Ghanaian non-incumbent President to win a major Party Flagbearership Contest one-touch, and doing so with the highest percentage for a first win in such contests to boot. He clearly has the greatest upside to lead the Party back to victory, when the political environment turns in NPP’s favour, as the ebb and flow of politics often goes.

He is considered the best Vice President ever in our history, with many positively impactful initiatives to his credit, including the restoration and boosting of the Gold Purchasing Programme (GPP), which he recommended in 2021, piloted in 2022 and rolled out in 2023, that helped stabilize and now appreciate the Cedi. Many of us in the Party will correct any pedestrian attempt to twist data or records to support a false parochial narrative that he is not the NPP’s best option to win again, because sound data analytics and credible research all show that he is.

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